Civilisation
Of course, civilisation isn't really like that. Even this concession to the factual solidity embodied by an artifact does not allow us to adequately capture the movement of memes – symbols, ideas, concepts – and the people who carry them, the memephors (if you like). The problem does not go away as we come closer to our present age in time, simply because events have a larger footprint and the implications of each event (and the significance of such events) multiply beyond our horizon of understanding.
In the past, the ocean of history was large and relatively empty. A person invents a tool in what is modern Spain and there is a very long while before it has any impact in what is now Canada. In the present, this is not so. Canada and Spain are no distance away at all, in terms of the Information Age.
If you play games like Sid Meier's Civilisation (currently in its fourth edition), you will see this replicated to some extent. Until you encounter another civilisation, there is absolutely no mutual impact from technological or social innovation on your part or on someone else's part. However, as civilisations begin to encounter each other, exchanges of information and technology occur and the world is wrenched asunder for some, improved for others. Nobody benefits from insularity or from trying to maintain superiority alone.
There is one exception: a power that grows exponentially by conquest without pausing to consolidate can possibly win by eliminating all significant rivals within the sphere of consideration. Even for this exception, the effects of human social behaviour will sooner or later act to brake expansion and cause revolution. The resulting centripetal force and its consequents will cause civilisations that expand too rapidly to fracture, decline in quality, or disastrously contract.
And all this you get by playing computer games for hours. How come? Because good computer game designers learn from history and try to model things so that they happen as they always have (in general) with a bit of random and unexpected stuff (as in real life). The problem is trying to guess the right proportion.
My guess is that there is no right proportion. Nothing is new under the sun; what most people won't guess, somebody has already guessed. The correct guesses are always in the minority, and often made for the wrong reasons when you look at the specifics. The wrong answers are always the majority, and they are often bolstered by retroactive creativity and plain self-deception, so that they look somewhat right.
Eventually, most of us will shake our heads, wave our hands, give a wry smile, scribble something down and call it a day. This is the foundation of history.
Labels: Civilisation, History, Society