Statistical Note
It's interesting to see what happened to my reader demographics in Week 10 of this year. Deadline fatigue, it appears, just before the local school break in Week 11.
But more to the point, I just want to reiterate the sobering argument I made in TOK class the other day.
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Let's assume I'm older than most of my readers. Let's say I am 20 years old now. Hypothetically speaking, and all other things being equal (and even if not!) I have a 100% chance of reaching the age of 20 (since I am already 20 in this example). My juniors who are 18 actually have (for certain) a <100% chance of reaching 20, on average.
This means that I may actually have a longer total life expectancy than any of my juniors, simply by virtue of having lived longer already. The main problem of course is that I may have a lower chance of surviving the next year than they; my short-term odds are a little weaker, especially after factoring in the diseases that are part of the accumulation of life. Remember that in the long term, oxygen is a poison and life is wearisome to those who can only think about the physical world.
Now extend the argument. Suppose I am actually 40 now. I have now cleared 22 more years than an 18-year-old. Each of those 22 years, for an 18-year-old, carries a finite probability of dissolution (i.e., chance of dying). For me, each of those 22 years now carries no chance of death, since I have negotiated them safely (i.e., am still alive).
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What an interesting line of argument! And what further interesting lines of discussion this opens up...
For example, would you expect me to be more of a risk-taker or less of a risk-taker? And what else comes with being older? Does it mean wiser, less foolish, more romantic, more pragmatic, what? What do you think?
But more to the point, I just want to reiterate the sobering argument I made in TOK class the other day.
=====
Let's assume I'm older than most of my readers. Let's say I am 20 years old now. Hypothetically speaking, and all other things being equal (and even if not!) I have a 100% chance of reaching the age of 20 (since I am already 20 in this example). My juniors who are 18 actually have (for certain) a <100% chance of reaching 20, on average.
This means that I may actually have a longer total life expectancy than any of my juniors, simply by virtue of having lived longer already. The main problem of course is that I may have a lower chance of surviving the next year than they; my short-term odds are a little weaker, especially after factoring in the diseases that are part of the accumulation of life. Remember that in the long term, oxygen is a poison and life is wearisome to those who can only think about the physical world.
Now extend the argument. Suppose I am actually 40 now. I have now cleared 22 more years than an 18-year-old. Each of those 22 years, for an 18-year-old, carries a finite probability of dissolution (i.e., chance of dying). For me, each of those 22 years now carries no chance of death, since I have negotiated them safely (i.e., am still alive).
=====
What an interesting line of argument! And what further interesting lines of discussion this opens up...
For example, would you expect me to be more of a risk-taker or less of a risk-taker? And what else comes with being older? Does it mean wiser, less foolish, more romantic, more pragmatic, what? What do you think?
Labels: Actuarial Science, Life, Statistics
etched with acid at 2:13:00 pm
1 Comments:
Intuitively, I would say take more risks than before, try things that you've never thought you will try or do things that you say "maybe later" almost now.
After all, since "each of those 22 years now carries no chance of death", the probably of death henceforth would thus increase. Given that natural increase already, why not risk it a little more?
But good question, why haven't thought about this before...
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